【美国学者：#美国“政治压力指数”飙升# 社会恐有大动荡】近日，美国两名学者警告称，美国可能即将发生巨大的政治动荡。根据BuzzFeed的报道，为了预测由不平等引发社会动荡的可能性，康涅狄格大学的人类进化学家彼得·图尔钦(Peter Turchin) 和乔治·梅森大学社会学家杰克·戈德斯通(Jack Goldstone)根据统计学数据建立了“政治压力指数”(PSI)模型。模型中包括了工资停滞、国债、精英间的竞争、对政府的信任度、城市化、人口年龄结构等影响因素。根据PSI预测，美国的不稳定性会在2020年左右达到顶峰。图尔钦表示，“在美国，我们的实际收入停滞不前或下降，贫富差距日益扩大，高学历的年轻毕业生数量众多竞争加大，公共债务爆炸式增加。从历史上看，这种发展倾向一直是政治动荡的主要征兆。” 他们指出，美国目前的PSI曲线与当年内战时期的曲线呈现相同的特点。这可能意味着美国即将爆发第二次内战，而2020年美国总统大选，就有可能成为潜在的导火索。Two academics caution that there will be a huge political turmoil in the U.S. ahead, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election won't change the course, according to a BuzzFeed article. Peter Turchin, an evolutionary anthropologist at the University of Connecticut, has developed a political stress indicator, or PSI, which incorporates measures of wage stagnation, national debt, competition between elites, distrust in government, urbanization, and the age structure of the population. The researchers believe their model can explain how inequality escalated and leads to political instability. Turchin once predicted the instability would peak in around the year 2020 based on the PSI. The PSI curve during America's darkest time in the 1860s during the Civil War shares the same pattern with the PSI curve at the moment. This could mean the country is on the way to the second civil war, and the 2020 election can be the potential "fire-starter" event, said Turchin. For more: http://t.cn/A6bkU5Xs