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【【海外博士论文】《中国家谱与人类生育能力的微观人口学分析（1368-1911）》】
A micro-demographic analysis of human fertility from Chinese genealogies, 1368-1911
作者：Sijie Hu
导师：Cummins Neil 、马德斌（Ma Debin）
毕业院校：伦敦政治经济学院(The London School of Economics and Political Science）
答辩时间：2020年

论文概要

This thesis is a micro-demographic analysis of human fertility from Chinese genealogies in the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1911) dynasties. It exploits a new genealogical dataset comprising 72,861 individuals from six lineages to account for the fertility decisions taken in Chinese families. Following the comprehensive micro-level analyses of a small population, the thesis demonstrates the main features at an individual level of the fertility patterns and the relationships between demographic outcomes and social outcomes in imperial China. This thesis consists of three substantive chapters. The first constructs the marital fertility levels and provides the ongoing debate with quantitative evidence on whether the Chinese consciously practised fertility controls in the pre-modern era. The second substantive chapter shows the social gradients in fertility and examines the mechanisms through which social status affected fertility. The third expands the reproductive success story of a single generation into a multi-generational one, focusing on the process of transmitting fertility choices across generations and the effects of family size on the quality of the children. The three chapters together exhibit the micro-demographic dynamics in Chinese families from the fourteenth to the twentieth centuries. The thesis shows that Ming-Qing China had a moderate fertility level, with no deliberate fertility controls. Throughout the entire period, climbing up the social ladder could significantly increase men’s net reproduction through increasing their marriage chances and the number of marriages they could have. Moreover, elites in traditional China also managed to transmit reproductive success to their offspring, mainly by passing on their high social outcomes. Family size could also affect the quality of the offspring, but the effect was not powerful enough to bring about any change in parents’ fertility choices.

本论文从中国明朝（1368-1644）和清朝（1644-1911）的家谱中对人类的生育能力进行了微观人口学分析。它利用一个新的家谱数据集，包括来自六个世系的72,861人，来说明中国家庭的生育决定。在对少量人口进行了全面的微观分析后，论文展示了帝国中国在个人层面上的生育模式的主要特征以及人口结果与社会结果之间的关系。本论文由三个实质性章节组成。第一章构建了婚姻生育水平，为正在进行的辩论提供了关于中国人在前现代是否有意识地实行生育控制的定量证据。第二章显示了生育率的社会梯度，并研究了社会地位影响生育率的机制。第三章将单代人的生育成功故事扩展为多代人的故事，重点关注生育选择的跨代传递过程以及家庭规模对子女质量的影响。这三章共同展示了从十四世纪到二十世纪中国家庭的微观人口动态。论文显示，明清时期的中国有一个适度的生育水平，没有刻意的生育控制。在整个时期，在社会阶梯上的攀升可以通过增加男性的婚姻机会和他们可以拥有的婚姻数量而大大增加男性的净繁殖力。此外，传统中国的精英们也设法将生殖成功传递给他们的后代，主要是通过传递他们的高社会成果。家庭规模也会影响到后代的质量，但这种影响还不足以给父母的生育选择带来任何改变。
（来源：汉学研究）