【大国间真正的对话，是无声的】

2023年9月22日CNN报道：卫星图像显示大毛、兔子和鹰酱木边试验场的活动增加。Satellite images show increased activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, China and US

有线电视新闻网独家获得的卫星图像显示，近年来，大毛，鹰酱和兔子都在其木边试验场建造了新设施并挖掘了新的隧道，而此时三个主要木边大国之间的紧张局势已上升到数十年来的最高水平。
Russia, the United States and China have all built new facilities and dug new tunnels at their nuclear test sites in recent years, satellite images obtained exclusively by CNN show, at a time when tensions between the three major nuclear powers have risen to their highest in decades.

与几年前相比，三个木边试验场最近进行了扩建。一个由兔子在新江西部地区运营，一个由大毛在北冰洋群岛运营，另一个在鹰酱的内华达沙漠运营。illustrate recent expansions at three nuclear test sites compared with just a few years ago.One is operated by China in the far western region of Xinjiang, one by Russia in an Arctic Ocean archipelago, and another in the US in the Nevada desert.

“我们看到的确实有很多迹象表明大毛，兔子和鹰酱可能会恢复木边试验，”他说，自1996年“全面禁止木边试验条约”禁止地下木边试验以来，这些国家都没有这样做。兔子和鹰酱签署了该条约，但他们尚未批准该条约（原文如此）。“There are really a lot of hints that we’re seeing that suggest Russia, China and the United States might resume nuclear testing,” he said, something none of those countries have done since underground nuclear testing was banned by the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. China and the US signed the treaty, but they haven’t ratified it.

莫斯科已经批准了该条约，但大毛总统弗拉基米尔·普京在二月份表示，如果鹰酱首先采取行动，他将下令进行测试，并补充说“任何人都不应该对全球战略平等可以被摧毁抱有危险的幻想。Moscow has ratified the treaty, but Russian President Vladimir Putin said in February he would order a test, if the US moves first, adding that “no one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed.”

大毛在北冰洋群岛新地岛的木边试验场正在扩建。据大毛国防部称，8月中旬，国防部长谢尔盖绍伊古访问时，该设施再次受到关注。an expansion of the country’s nuclear test site in Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic Ocean archipelago.In mid-August, the facility received renewed focus when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu paid a visit, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

附图1大毛新地岛木边试验场的新建筑，2023年6月22日。
New Construction at Russia's Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site, June 22, 2023.

新地岛遗址于1955年首次被苏联用于进行木边试验，直到1990年苏联最后一次地下爆炸。根据发表在《科学与全球安全》杂志上的一篇评论，在此期间，该网站共进行了130次测试，涉及200多台设备。The Novaya Zemlya site was first used by the Soviet Union to conduct nuclear tests in 1955 until the USSR’s final underground explosion in 1990. During that time, the site saw a total of 130 tests involving more than 200 devices, according to a review published in the Science and Global Security journal.

鹰酱有线电视新闻网获得的卫星图像显示，从2021年到2023年，新地岛试验场进行了大规模建设，船只和新的集装箱抵达其港口，冬季道路保持畅通，隧道深入北极山脉。Satellite images obtained by CNN showed that there has been extensive construction at the Novaya Zemlya test site from 2021 to 2023, with ships and new shipping containers arriving at its port, roads being kept clear in the winter, and tunnels dug deep into the Arctic mountains.

“大毛的试验场现在全年开放，我们看到他们清除道路上的积雪，我们看到他们建造新的设施。“The Russian test site is now open year round, we see them clearing snow off roads, we see them building new facilities.”

在罗布泊的兔子木边试验场也发现了活动增加。卫星图像显示，近年来正在挖掘新的第五条地下隧道，并修建了新的道路。对2022年和2023年拍摄的图像进行比较显示，弃土堆的尺寸一直在稳步增加，导致分析师认为隧道正在扩大。Increased activity was also detected at the Chinese nuclear test site in Lop Nur.Satellite images show a new, fifth underground tunnel has been under excavation in recent years, and fresh roads have been built. A comparison of the images taken in 2022 and 2023 shows the spoil pile has been steadily increasing in size, leading analysts to believe tunnels are being expanded, Lewis said.

此外，主要行政和支助区也出现了新的建设项目。2021年和2022年建造了一个新的储存区，可用于储存炸药。“兔子的试验场与大毛的试验场不同，”刘易斯说。“兔子的试验场很大，有很多不同的部分。In addition, the main administration and support area has seen new construction projects. A new storage area was built in 2021 and 2022, which could be used for storing explosives, he added.“The Chinese test site is different than the Russian test site,” “The Chinese test site is vast, and there are many different parts of it.”

罗布泊可能正在建设第六条测试隧道“沿着山的地形挖了一条很长的隧道，途中有弯道，这表明测试场的建设已进入最后阶段。It found a possible sixth testing tunnel under construction at Lop Nur, “the fact that a very long tunnel has been dug along the mountain’s terrain with bends on the way indicates that the construction of the test site is in its final phase.”

附图2：新建的罗布泊木边试验场。New Construction at the administrative and support area, Lop Nor nuclear test site.

“鹰酱的政策是准备在相对较短的时间内进行木边试验，大约六个月，”“The United States has a policy of being prepared to conduct a nuclear test on relatively short notice, about six months,”

在内华达州木边试验场（正式名称为内华达州国家安全场）上方拍摄的商业卫星图像显示，地下设施 - U1a综合体 - 在2018年至2023年期间进行了大幅扩建。
The commercial satellite imagery, taken above the nuclear test site in Nevada, officially known as the Nevada National Security Site, shows that an underground facility – the U1a complex – was expanded greatly between 2018 and 2023.

鹰酱能源部负责监督该地点的国家安全局（NNSA）表示，该实验室用于进行“亚临届”木边实验，这是一种长期的做法，旨在确保当前库存中武器的可靠性，而无需进行全面测试。The National Security Administration (NNSA), an arm of the US Department of Energy that oversees the site, says the laboratory is for conducting “subcritical” nuclear experiments, a longstanding practice meant to ensure the reliability of weapons in the current stockpile without full-scale testing.

“在亚临届实验中，化学烈性炸药产生高压，这些压力被应用于木边武器材料，如钚。炸药和木边材料的配置和数量使得不会发生木边爆炸，“NNSA的网站说。“In subcritical experiments, chemical high explosives generate high pressures, which are applied to nuclear weapon materials, such as plutonium. The configuration and quantities of explosives and nuclear materials are such that no nuclear explosion will occur,” the NNSA’s website says.

附图3：2023年至2018年内华达州国家安全站点的建设活动。
Construction activity, Nevada National Security Site from 2023 to 2018.

鹰酱政府问责局（GAO）8月发布的一份报告称，鹰酱将在内华达州工厂建造两个测量设备，以“在亚临届实验中对钚进行新的测量”。A report from the US Governmental Accountability Office (GAO) released in August says the US will build two measurement devices at the Nevada site to “make new measurements of plutonium during subcritical experiments.”

根据GAO的报告，这些装置和相关基础设施的改进需要“为木边武器库存现代化计划提供信息”，将耗资约25亿至26亿美元，到2030年准备就绪。The devices and related infrastructure improvements, needed “to inform plans for modernizing the nuclear weapons stockpile” will cost about $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion and be ready by 2030, according to the GAO report.