【我还真猜对了，星舰第三发目标——入轨！】SpaceX创始人马斯克进行了星舰的新一轮演讲（画大饼），核心内容总结如下：

1.星舰第三次发射不早于2月12日，也就是一个月后，运气好的话农历春节能看到。

2.诚如我之前的微博猜测，星舰第三次发射的目标是入轨（如图1），计划使用舱门释放星链卫星（图2）。因为火神的成功首飞，星舰即使这次成功入轨，也已经是人类第三款入轨的甲烷火箭了。

3.消息源很可靠，星舰第三次发射确实要进行在轨推进剂补加的部分演示，头部贮箱和主贮箱间进行箱间推进剂转移。

4.入轨发射就必须搭配离轨点火，星舰要在轨进行点火，肯定很壮观。

5.SpaceX乐观计划是今年进行正规的两星舰间的推进剂转移，而明年则是Deadline，必须做到，因为这是登月的必要前置条件。

6.星舰村开建第二座发射台，LC-39A估计短期指望不上了。

7.马斯克称第二次星舰发射本来有希望成功，但因为没有载荷，进行了额外液氧的排放，导致起火后引爆。这个说法有些模糊，尤其是一级的引爆原因没有提及。

原文附后：

Flight 2 Ship 25 EOM:

"So Flight 2 actually almost made it to orbit. In fact, ironically, if it had a payload, it would have made it to orbit, because the reason that it actually didn't quite make it to orbit was we vented the liquid oxygen, and the liquid oxygen ultimately led to fire and an explosion. Because we wanted to vent the liquid oxygen because we normally wouldn't have that liquid oxygen if we had a payload.

"So ironically, if it had a payload, it would have reached orbit. And so I think we've got a really good shot of reaching orbit with flight three and then a rapid cadence to achieve full and rapid reusability."

Flight 3:

"Flight three, we want to get to orbit and we want to do an in-space engine burn from the header tank and prove that we can reliably de-orbit." (Many references to the importance to NASA Artemis. Wants to overachieve and make Moon Base Alpha a reality).

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