在美股新高的时候，需要重温 Chamath关于投资的经典话语来提醒自己
发表时间与地点：2020 年 9 月 14 日，Chamath Palihapitiya 在 X 平台（原推特）发布系列贴文
人物介绍：Chamath Palihapitiya 是斯里兰卡裔加拿大-美国企业家与投资人，曾任 Facebook 高管，后创立 Social Capital 投资公司。他以长期价值投资、独立思考和反周期投资策略著称，也是知名的科技与风险投资领域意见领袖。
Investing 101: Successful investing is all about behavior and psychology.
投资 101：成功投资完全取决于行为与心理。
You can have the best model or analysis in the world but if you panic, you lose.
你可以拥有世界上最好的模型或分析，但如果在关键时刻恐慌，你就会输。
Said differently, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
换句话说，每个人在被“打脸”之前都有计划。
Let’s begin…
那我们开始吧……
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The most important thing you can do to maximize the odds of success is figure out what, if any, behavioral advantages you have or can create for yourself.
你能做的、以最大化成功概率的最重要事情，就是弄清楚自己是否拥有或能为自己创造的行为优势。
What rules can you live by that will prevent you from doing something stupid especially when everyone is losing their mind?
你能遵循哪些规则，可以在所有人都失去理智时，防止自己做出愚蠢的事？
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Here are my behavioral decisions:
以下是我的行为决策：
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1. I don’t trade stocks. I buy companies.
1. 我不炒股，我购买公司。
Buying a company is like hiring a great CEO to work for you and your family. You can rest well knowing that Bezos, Musk etc. are on the job. That’s not true for all CEOs so decide accordingly.
买一家公司，就像是雇一个伟大的 CEO 来为你和你的家人工作。如果你知道 贝索斯，马斯克这样的人在管理，你可以安心入睡。并非所有 CEO 都如此，因此要据此做出决策。
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2. I try to buy companies that I think can potentially 10x in 10 years.
2. 我只买那些我认为未来 10 年可能涨 10 倍的公司。
If I’m not willing to do that, I don’t buy it. This doesn’t mean that I will bat 100% but that isn’t the goal. The goal is to become disciplined in a process, repeat this process and don’t deviate.
如果我不愿意抱着这样的预期，我就不买。
这并不意味着我每次都会成功，但那不是目标。
目标是养成纪律化的流程，坚持、重复、不偏离。
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3. It’s all about the annual report vs quarterly earnings.
3. 我关注年度报告，而不是季度业绩。
If I become too short-term focused, I am my worst enemy and will overthink, overreact and underperform my potential.
如果我太关注短期，我就是自己的最大敌人——会过度思考、反应过度，最终表现不佳。
Once you’ve bought a company, the hardest decision is no decision… patiently waiting to be right.
一旦买入公司，最难的决定就是“不做决定”——耐心等待正确的时机。
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4. I try not to look at prices every day.
4. 我尽量不每天看股价。
The market has an amazing way of giving you great opportunities to see the truth. You just need to realize that the price and the truth aren’t always the same. Looking at daily prices makes it harder for me to see the difference…
市场有一种奇妙的方式，让你获得观察真相的机会。你需要意识到，价格与真相并不总是一致；每天盯盘只会让我更难看清二者的区别。
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5. I don’t play with derivatives.
5. 我不碰衍生品。
Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.
期权看似有趣，但它们就像让幼儿玩上膛的枪——可能几次有惊无险，但最终会出事。
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In short, I have come to believe that the markets are the summation of everyone’s collective consciousness in any given moment.
简而言之，我逐渐相信市场是在某一时刻，全体人类集体意识的总和。
What this means, to me, is that I see the markets constantly over-reacting and under-reacting in any given moment based on people’s psychology.
这对我来说意味着，市场总是在不断过度反应或反应不足，这取决于当时人们的心理状态。
But I have also seen that over time, as you zoom out, sanity always prevails.
但我也看到，随着时间推移、拉长视角，理性总会回归。
By creating some rules and living by them, you give yourself the best chance of not losing momentum in moments of chaos, finding and sticking to your truth and letting prices catch up.
通过制定规则并严格遵守，你可以在混乱中保持节奏，不丢掉动力，找到并坚守自己的真相，耐心等价格回归。
