GS: for 2025, we nudge up our real GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0%, based on the 4th Plenum statement “to resolutely reach the economic targets” and the recent acceleration in government spending of fiscal deposits.

For 2026 and 2027, we raise our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, from 4.3% and 4.0% previously, primarily due to stronger export growth assumptions. These projections are substantially higher than consensus expectations.