Goldman: We assume AI-driven productivity benefits will boost S&P 500 EPS by 0.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.

Estimates of corporate AI adoption vary, but surveys from the Census Bureau and GS investment bankers suggest that roughly 30%-40% of large firms currently employ AI to some extent in their businesses.

Assuming full adoption and incorporation of AI into business models, we estimate that the stream of aggregate EPS would be 11% higher if companies increase revenues by way of a more productive workforce or 23% higher if companies increase margins through lower labor costs. However, in the long-term, competition will likely prevent some companies from retaining the incremental profits.