转（机翻）@shanaka86 对伊朗时局的分析：

伊朗现在正在进行一场委员会式的战争。

伊朗伊斯兰共和国宪法中有一项条款，在过去47年中仅被启用过一次。该条款第111条规定，最高领袖去世后，由三人组成的临时领导委员会将承担所有职责，直至专家会议选出永久继任者。该条款上一次启动是在1989年6月，当时霍梅尼在和平时期因自然原因去世。哈梅内伊于次日当选。

这一次，最高领袖是在国家遭受猛烈轰炸期间被外国空袭身亡的。如今掌握他权力的三人分别是：一位改革派总统、一位强硬派司法部长和一位与军方没有任何关联的神学家。

马苏德·佩泽什基安总统当选时被定位为温和派，并承诺采取外交接触。首席大法官穆赫塞尼-埃杰伊则是强硬派政权的忠实拥护者。被选为宪法监护委员会代表的阿亚图拉·阿里雷扎·阿拉菲领导着伊朗的神学院系统，据中东研究所称，他是一位官僚主义者，与安全机构缺乏密切联系。

这三人如今共同担任伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令。据估计，伊斯兰革命卫队控制着伊朗经济的百分之六十。它指挥着圣城旅、巴斯基民兵以及从真主党到胡塞武装的所有代理人。过去三十六年，它一直听命于一人。如今，它却要听命于三人，而这三人甚至在国家的基本方向上都存在分歧。

2025年11月，佩泽什基扬本人在议会警告说，伤害哈梅内伊可能导致内部各派系互相攻击，若无外部干预，政权将崩溃。如今，他正身处最高权力机构委员会，试图阻止他所预言的悲剧重演。

由八十八位高级神职人员组成的专家会议必须召开，以选出永久继任者。然而，在精确制导武器仍在德黑兰肆虐的情况下，将政权最重要的八十八位神职人员聚集在同一栋楼内本身就构成安全隐患。伊朗从未在战火纷飞中完成过领导层交接。现代历史上没有任何一个神权国家这样做过。宪法机制的设计初衷是为了和平时期的权力交接，而非战时斩首。

委员会行使的每一分钟，都是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在六个国家的活跃战斗中，在模糊不清的指挥权下行动的一分钟。

这些袭击的目的是为了斩首。但实际造成的后果却更加动荡不安。它们瓦解了维系神权统治、革命卫队、代理帝国和核计划的单一权威。过去，这四者都由一人掌控。如今，一个由三人组成的委员会却无法完全控制其中任何一个。

你不需要摧毁伊朗的军队才能打败伊朗。你需要做的是让伊朗的指挥权变得模糊不清。

这就是今天早上发生的事情。

（原文）

Iran is now fighting a war by committee.

The Islamic Republic’s constitution has a provision invoked exactly once in forty seven years. Article 111 mandates that upon the Supreme Leader’s death, a three-person Provisional Leadership Council assumes all duties until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor. The last time this activated was June 1989, when Khomeini died of natural causes in peacetime. Khamenei was selected the following day.

This time the Supreme Leader was killed by a foreign airstrike while the country is under active bombardment. The three people who now collectively hold his authority are a reformist president, a hardline judiciary chief, and a theologian with no military ties.

President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as a moderate who promised diplomatic engagement. Chief Justice Mohseni-Eje’i is a hardline regime loyalist. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, selected as the Guardian Council’s representative, heads Iran’s seminary system and is according to the Middle East Institute a bureaucratic operator who lacks close ties to the security establishment.

These three now serve as collective commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC controls an estimated sixty percent of Iran’s economy. It commands the Quds Force, the Basij, and every proxy from Hezbollah to the Houthis. It answered to one man for thirty six years. It now answers to three who do not agree on the basic direction of the state.

In November 2025, Pezeshkian himself warned in parliament that harm to Khamenei could cause internal factions to turn on each other, leading to regime collapse without external intervention. He is now sitting on the council trying to prevent exactly what he predicted.

The Assembly of Experts, eighty eight senior clerics, must convene to select a permanent successor. But gathering eighty eight of the regime’s most important clerics in one building is itself a security risk when precision munitions are still falling on Tehran. Iran has never conducted a leadership transition under fire. No theocracy in modern history has. The constitutional mechanism was designed for peacetime succession, not wartime decapitation.

Every minute the council governs is a minute the IRGC operates under ambiguous command authority during active combat across six countries.

The strikes were designed to decapitate. What they actually produced is something more destabilizing. They fractured the singular authority that held together a theocracy, a revolutionary guard, a proxy empire, and a nuclear program under one chain of command. One man controlled all four. Now a committee of three controls none of them fully.

You do not need to destroy Iran’s military to defeat Iran. You need to make it unclear who gives the orders.

That is what happened this morning.