BCA: While yesterday’s ’s jobs report overstates the strength of the labor market, there is little doubt that underlying job growth has picked
up.

Private-sector payroll growth averaged 75K in the three months to August. Outside of health care and education, the 3-month average climbed to 48K, after spending most of 2025 in negative territory.

The payroll diffusion index rose to the highest level since 2024, signaling improved breadth of job gains.

Temporary-help employment, a leading indicator for overall job growth, has begun to rebound. Both initial and continuing unemployment claims are running below last year’s levels.