罗杰斯：一旦你变得过度自信，就会开始做蠢事

现在没有任何一个国家，能在两百年的时间里保持相同的边界和政府。世界会一直变化下去。
Not one country in existence today has had the same borders and government for as long as two hundred years. The world will continue changing.

承认世界的复杂性，不要以为自己轻易就能理解它。人们总是太快接受传统智慧，因为它听起来基本正确，而且会被同龄人和意见领袖不断强化，而这些人很多从来没有去核实过事实是否支持这些所谓的共识。生活的一个基本事实是，很多 “所有人都知道” 的事情，最终被证明是错的。
Acknowledge the complexity of the world and do not assume you can easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It’s a basic fact of life that many things “everybody knows” turn out to be wrong.

很多人都会犯这样一个错误在股市里：买入一只股票，看着它上涨，就觉得自己很聪明。他们会觉得投资太简单了，拿到一大笔利润之后，立刻就去找下一个目标。但恰恰在这个时候，他们最应该做的是什么都不做。自信会慢慢演变成自负，最后变成傲慢 —— 这种时候你真的应该把钱存进银行，去海滩待一段时间，直到你冷静下来。因为世上没有那么多绝佳的机会，一旦你变得过度自信，就会开始做蠢事，比如追逐小道消息、过度交易，而这就是你把刚赚到的钱全部亏掉的原因。
One of the mistakes that many people make in the stock market is buying something, watching it go up, and thinking they are smart. They find themselves thinking it is easy. They take a big profit and immediately go looking for something else. That’s the time they should really do nothing. Self-confidence leading to hubris leading to arrogance – that is when you really should put the money in the bank and go to the beach for a while until you calm down. Because there are not that many great opportunities out there, and if you get overconfident, you will start doing stupid things, like chasing hot tips or overtrading, and that is how you lose all the money you just made.

不要担心失败，我会告诉他们，不要担心人生中会犯错。这是好事，亏钱、至少破产一次，最好是两次。但如果你要经历这些，一定要在你职业生涯的早期。当你只涉及 2 万美元的时候破产，比涉及 2000 万的时候要好。早点经历这些，这并不是世界末日。
Do not worry about failure, I would tell them. Do not worry about making mistakes in life. It is good to lose money, to go broke at least once, and preferably twice. But if you are going to do it, do it early in your career. It is better to go bust when you are talking about $20,000 than when you are talking about $20 million. Do it early, and it is not the end of the world.

以上内容为罗杰斯经典语录整理
由数字人罗杰斯播报
本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生 http://t.cn/AXScusBk