霍华德•马克斯：AI，任何人都不应全仓入场！

这项技术只是一时的潮流或虚幻的泡影吗？
Is this technology merely a passing trend or an illusory bubble?
我可以坚定地说，AI 是真实存在的技术，拥有彻底改变商业世界、重塑我们生活方式的潜力。
I can state firmly that AI is a genuine technology with the potential to completely transform the business world and reshape how we live.
这项技术的落地应用还遥遥无期吗？
Is the real-world implementation of this technology still far off?
显然，AI 技术已形成市场需求，且正被大规模应用。
Clearly, AI technology has generated market demand and is being deployed on a large scale.
由于 AI 看似抽象、难以理解，我认为如今其潜力更可能被低估，而非高估。
Given that AI appears abstract and hard to grasp, I believe its potential today is far more likely to be underestimated than overestimated.
AI 基础设施的建设者是否存在非理性行为？
Are those building AI infrastructure acting irrationally?
纵观历次重大技术创新，狂热的基础设施建设热潮虽大幅加速了技术的普及，却也导致大量资本被 “错误配置” 并最终流失。
Looking back at every major technological innovation throughout history, frenzied booms in infrastructure construction have drastically accelerated technology adoption, yet they have also caused massive amounts of capital to be misallocated and ultimately lost.
没有理由认为，AI 领域会成为例外。
There is no reason to believe the AI sector will be an exception.
AI 基础设施的投资能否带来足够的回报？
Will investments in AI infrastructure deliver sufficient returns?
由于我们尚未完全掌握 AI 的商业潜力及其对企业盈利能力的影响，这个问题目前无法回答。
Since we have not yet fully grasped AI’s commercial potential or its impact on corporate profitability, this question cannot be answered for now.
市场对 AI 相关企业的热情毋庸置疑，而这些投资最终能否产生匹配的利润，十年后我们才能知晓答案。
The market’s enthusiasm for AI-related companies is undeniable, but we will not know whether these investments can yield matching profits until a decade from now.
既然没有人能确切判断这是否是一场泡沫，我的建议是：任何人都不应全仓入场，因为必须承认，一旦形势恶化，将面临毁灭性的风险；
Since no one can definitively determine whether this is a bubble, my advice is as follows: no one should invest their entire capital in this space, because we must acknowledge that devastating risks will emerge if market conditions take a turn for the worse.
但同样，也没有人应完全回避，否则可能错失这场伟大的技术革命。
By the same token, no one should steer clear entirely, or they risk missing out on this great technological revolution.
以审慎的态度精选标的，保持适度的持仓，似乎是最佳策略。
Carefully selecting targets with a prudent mindset and maintaining moderate positions seems to be the optimal strategy. http://t.cn/AXSoqe5G