关于历史的因果律的问题，对于有些历史事件的预测或者解释比另外一些历史事件要容易一些。比如，预测或者解释战争的胜负或者结束，比预测或者解释战争的爆发要容易。 ​​​

On the subject of historical causality, the prediction or explanation of certain historical events is easier than that of others.