转（机翻）：@shanaka86:以色列第 12 频道援引未具名的情报来源报道称，越来越多的迹象表明，最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊在今天早上的空袭中丧生。
未受伤。未转移。死亡。
这项评估并非基于卫星图像，而是基于伊朗政权内部的人力情报来源。正是这些情报来源向以色列透露了伊朗领导层会议的召开时间，也正是这些情报来源提供了早上8点15分发动光天化日之下空袭的时机，打破了以色列历史上所有针对伊朗的军事行动模式。以色列并非随意轰炸建筑物然后碰运气，而是在特定的时间袭击了特定的房间，因为房间安全警戒线内的某人准确地告诉了他们何时发动袭击。
伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇的回应只有五个字：“据我所知，他还活着。” 这并非否认。这是一个与最高领袖失去联系，却在电视直播中含糊其辞的人。一位与国家元首保持联系的外长会说“他还活着”，而一位失去联系的外长却只会说“据我所知”。
以色列方面还宣布，此前承诺的哈梅内伊向全国发表的讲话，即便播出，也是预先录制好的。想想这意味着什么。以色列情报部门对评估结果信心十足，甚至公开预测任何有关哈梅内伊还活着的证据都将是伪造的。他们并非在等待官方确认，而是在先发制人地抹黑否认。
伊朗官方媒体没有发布哈梅内伊的画面。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官也没有发表声明证实与最高领袖有过接触。也没有任何视频证明他仍然在世。伊朗在袭击发生后的几个小时内就向六个国家发射了报复性导弹。这不需要最高领袖，只需要既定命令和惊慌失措的将军们。真正需要最高领袖的是接下来的行动：决定是否将局势升级为全面战争、启动霍尔木兹海峡导弹系统，还是进行谈判。今晚，这个决定似乎无人知晓。
哈梅内伊统治伊朗已有35年。他是霍梅尼的继任者。他建立了伊朗核计划。他资助了真主党、哈马斯、胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵组织。他的任期比八位美国总统都长。整个伊斯兰共和国的架构、神学、军事理论、继承程序，都由这位86岁的老人掌控，而自今天早上8点15分以来，他就杳无音讯。
如果他还活着，一段视频就能在几秒钟内终结这一切猜测。
沉默本身就是故事。
（原文）
Israeli Channel 12 is reporting, citing unnamed intelligence sources, growing indications that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in this morning’s strikes.
Not injured. Not relocated. Killed.
The assessment is not based on satellite imagery. It is based on human intelligence sources inside the Iranian regime. The same sources that told Israel when the leadership gathering would happen. The same sources that provided the timing for an 8:15 a.m. daylight strike that broke every pattern of every Israeli operation against Iran in history. Israel did not bomb a building and hope. Israel struck a specific room at a specific time because someone inside that room’s security perimeter told them exactly when to strike.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded with five words: “still alive as far as I know.” That is not a denial. That is a man who does not have contact with his own Supreme Leader and is hedging in real time on live television. A foreign minister with confirmed communication to his head of state says “he is alive.” A foreign minister who has lost contact says “as far as I know.”
Israel has also announced that a promised Khamenei speech to the nation, if it airs at all, will have been prerecorded. Think about what that means. Israeli intelligence is confident enough in the assessment to publicly predict that any proof of life will be fabricated. They are not waiting for confirmation. They are preemptively discrediting the denial.
No Iranian state media outlet has shown Khamenei. No IRGC commander has issued a statement confirming contact with the Supreme Leader. No proof-of-life video has surfaced. Iran launched retaliatory missiles at six countries within hours of the strikes. That requires no supreme leader. That requires standing orders and panicked generals. What requires a supreme leader is what comes next: the decision to escalate to total war, activate Hormuz, or negotiate. That decision has no visible author tonight.
Khamenei has ruled Iran for 35 years. He succeeded Khomeini. He built the nuclear program. He funded Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Iraqi militias. He outlasted eight American presidents. The entire architecture of the Islamic Republic, its theology, its military doctrine, its succession protocols, flows through one 86-year-old man who has not been seen or heard from since 8:15 this morning.
If he is alive, one video ends this speculation in seconds.
The silence is the story.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
