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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:57来自微博网页版

Every one of these participants became a forced seller—someone who must trade regardless of price because their constraints demand it. The marginal participant shifted. The typical marginal participant, patient capital seeking fair value, algorithms optimizing for edge, stepped

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:42来自微博网页版

The market is efficient not in spite of competition, but because of it. Built on the bones of everyone who isn’t sophisticated enough to compete—including those who must trade on someone else’s schedule.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:42来自微博网页版

The Grossman-Stiglitz framework assumes participants are making voluntary, optimizing decisions. It doesn’t account for the opportunity marginal participant, the forced trader whose constraints create inefficiencies that cannot be arbitraged away by speed alone. When an index f

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:41来自微博网页版

The resolution is elegant: markets exist in a state of dynamic equilibrium where they are efficient enough that most participants cannot profit from information gathering, but inefficient enough that the most skilled participants can still earn returns that compensate them for th

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:40来自微博网页版

The Paradox of Efficient Markets If the typical marginal participant is so strong, why does the market exist at all? Why doesn’t the efficient money simply eat everything instantly? Economists Sanford Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz formalized the answer in 1980. Stiglitz would la

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:39来自微博网页版

Professional edge doesn’t come from being smarter than the HFTs. It comes from recognizing when the marginal participant has shifted from unconstrained optimizer to constrained seller. The game isn’t “beat the algorithm.” The game is “identify when the algorithm isn’t your

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:22来自微博网页版

The typical marginal participant is sophisticated. The opportunity marginal participant is desperate. This resolves the paradox: if the marginal participant is so sophisticated, how does anyone profit? The answer is that the identity of the marginal participant changes. In equil

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:19来自微博网页版

But there is a second type. The opportunity marginal participant is not optimizing for profit. They’re constrained by forces that override their economic rationality. They must trade—not because they want to, but because they have to: the mutual fund facing redemptions who mus

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:17来自微博网页版

Today? At its peak in 2009, high-frequency trading firms generated over 60% of US equity volume. The figure remains near 50%, and their presence in futures markets is at least as significant. These firms make decisions based on patterns humans cannot perceive. They execute thousa

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:16来自微博网页版

Two Types of Marginal Participant In normal conditions, the marginal participant is extraordinarily sophisticated. In 1995, the marginal participant was often a human floor trader with a telephone—constrained by geography, information latency, human cognitive limits. The edges

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:16来自微博网页版

The Marginal Participant The marginal participant is, in my view, the single most important mental model for understanding price action. Markets aren’t set by consensus. They’re set by the marginal participant. When you lift an offer on the ES, you’re not trading against “t

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:15来自微博网页版

The distribution of trading returns is heavily skewed. A small percentage of traders capture the vast majority of profits. Everyone else finances their success. The question becomes: if the game is negative-sum, and you must take money from someone else to survive, who exactly i

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 09:15来自微博网页版

The derivatives market is a pure zero-sum game before costs. Every dollar gained on one side of a contract is a dollar lost on the other side. After costs, it becomes negative-sum. The aggregate pool of trading profits, across all participants, is negative by the amount of total

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:59来自微博网页版

Forget the charts for a moment. Look at the math. Trading is not just zero-sum. It is negative-sum. Zero-sum means every dollar you make comes directly from another participant’s pocket. For you to profit, someone else must lose. No company grows because you bought a contract

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:54来自微博网页版

Every trader who analyzes a chart is playing first-level thinking: what does this pattern suggest price will do? Every trader who asks, “what will other traders do when they see this chart?” is playing second-level. The game is won at the third level, anticipating what others e

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:51来自微博网页版

John Maynard Keynes understood this in 1936 when he compared financial markets to a beauty contest—not the kind where judges select the most attractive face, but a peculiar newspaper game of his era where readers chose the six faces they thought other readers would find most att

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:50来自微博网页版

The blindness: when you trade, you’re not trading against “the market” as an abstract entity. You’re trading against a specific participant—a human being, or more likely an algorithm, with specific information, specific constraints, specific motivations. If that participant

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:49来自微博网页版

Most people arrive at trading seduced by a dangerous narrative: markets aggregate information efficiently. Prices reflect collective wisdom. If you’re rational, diligent, and hardworking, you can identify mispricings others have missed. Your intelligence and effort will be rewar

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:44来自微博网页版

They were destroyed not by being wrong about their positions, but by being on the same side of the same trades as participants they couldn’t see. Their edge was real. Their models were sound. Their risk management was state-of-the-art. But they were competing against a counterpa

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:43来自微博网页版

The traders at those desks were among the most sophisticated participants in financial history. They had information advantages, technological advantages, and mathematical advantages that retail traders cannot comprehend, let alone replicate. They had risk models that incorporate

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:39来自微博网页版

The professional doesn’t optimize for the one path they expect. They size for the thousand paths they don’t. They build portfolios and position sizes that survive being wrong because they know they will be wrong. Frequently, painfully, expensively wrong. The question isn’t, “

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:39来自微博网页版

Third and most important, prediction is fragile; structure is robust. The amateur obsesses over “what happens next,” spending endless hours trying to forecast the market’s next move. But prediction is a brittle strategy. Even if you’re right 60% of the time (which would make

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:38来自微博网页版

Second, inaction is a position. Standing still feels safe. It isn’t. Standing still is a bet that the environment will not change, that the status quo will persist. In markets, where the only constant is change, this is usually a losing wager. Every moment you’re flat, you’re

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:37来自微博网页版

First, information is always incomplete. If you wait for clarity, you have already missed the move. The amateur sits paralyzed, waiting for “confirmation.” The professional acts on partial information, sizes for uncertainty, and updates as data arrives. Clarity is a mirage that

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-04 08:36来自微博网页版

Professionals don’t rely on willpower. They run an operating system—decision protocols, risk limits, feedback loops—that insulates them from their own biology. They treat trading as an engineering problem, and engineer their way out.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:56来自微博网页版

The realism to know what is impossible, the imagination to know what is possible.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:56来自微博网页版

Both the best and worst CEOs have this in common: the company could run without them.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:48来自微博网页版

An idea is not a mockup. A mockup is not a prototype. A prototype is not a program. A program is not a product. A product is not a business. And a business is not profits.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:47来自微博网页版

The 6 Ps are a useful checklist. Product—What are you selling? Person—To whom? Purpose—Why are they buying it? Pricing—At what price? Priority—Why now? Prestige—And why from you? Seems obvious, but many companies (especially in healthcare) can’t easily answer these.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:45来自微博网页版

Anything founded before the internet may not be able to survive the internet.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:45来自微博网页版

The best entrepreneurs are logical enough to think of unpopular truths and then social enough to make those truths popular.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:45来自微博网页版

Many industries will evolve like this: Human Service Semi-automated service Fully automated Human, then human/machine pair, then machine.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:44来自微博网页版

You can condemn hypocrisy. Or you can arbitrage inconsistency.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:28来自微博网页版

A tech company is about a focused technoeconomic innovation.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:28来自微博网页版

The state has far more money than anyone else. But NASA is behind SpaceX because tech isn’t capital-limited; it’s competence-limited.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:24来自微博网页版

The founder is usually the only one who has the credibility to impose large short-term costs for larger long-term gains.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:19来自微博网页版

Highly negative stories dominate headlines (if it bleeds, it leads), while highly positive outcomes determine returns (the power law).

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:12来自微博网页版

Summary 1. At any given time, numerous entrepreneurs are trying a variety of pursuits and are creating all kinds of niches on the periphery of any business. The problem is that while all this is happening, it is not clear which of these many niches will grow and emerge as a siza

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:08来自微博网页版

Typically, top management is pulled by two opposing, responsible forces: those that demand commitment to the old and those that advocate for the future. . .. Understanding and managing this tension perceptively may well separate the ultimate winners from the losers. James Utterb

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 14:07来自微博网页版

Summary 1. Once a company colonizes a unique position in its industry, it must try to improve it. Improving the company's position is absolutely essential in gaining advantage over competitors. 2. While improving its current position, the company must also be alert to new, pote

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 13:59来自微博网页版

How do strategic innovators hit upon these masterstrokes? The companies we see as strategic innovators are those companies which are the first to spot emerging strategic positions in the map of their industry.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 13:58来自微博网页版

In most industries, competitors fight it out among themselves, often spending billions of dollars in advertising or price wars, with very little to show for their efforts. Despite the enormous expenditures on these competitive battles, competitors often see only marginal fluctuat

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 13:46来自微博网页版

Playing the Same Game, Only Better Over time, the strategy positioning map of any industry tends to fill up. This means that most potential customer segments have been defined and are being served, most possible products and services are being offered in one form or another, and

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 11:13来自微博网页版

Summary 1. The creation of a new strategy is part planning and part trial and error. Planning is necessary to define the parameters within which experimentation can take place. 2. The process of strategy creation consists essentially of two parts: (1) generation of ideas and (2

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 11:07来自微博网页版

To sum up my argument to this point: the creation of a new strategy involves two basic tasks (see Exhibit 7-1): 1. Generate as many ideas as possible on who to target, what to sell, and how to do it. These ideas can be generated through formal planning or trial and error and can

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 11:02来自微博网页版

Strategy making must encompass both elements: planning and trial and error. This point can't be emphasized enough, because it has become popular for people to argue that in today's volatile environment, planning is useless. By the time you establish a plan, the claim goes, the en

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 10:49来自微博网页版

All three examples demonstrate a simple but powerful point: The process of developing superior strategies is part planning and part trial and error, until you hit upon something that works. Analysis and planning will not produce a full-fledged strategy ready for implementation, b

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 09:29来自微博网页版

Summary 1. Everything a firm does in its business must be supported by the necessary skills, resources, and capabilities. Thus, to carry out the activities that its strategy requires, a firm must first develop the necessary assets and capabilities. 2. The assets or capabilities

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 09:16来自微博网页版

What Makes an Asset or Capability Truly Valuable A firm can secure assets and capabilities in four basic ways. 1 It may obtain them with the endowment that established the business. For example, a company established to exploit a proprietary technology may have received a valuab

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-03 09:15来自微博网页版

Core competencies are the wellspring of new business development. They should constitute the focus for strategy at the corporate level. C. K. Prahalad and Gary Hamel, "The Core Competence of the Corporation" The spirit of Southwest is the most difficult thing to emulate. If we

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 14:21来自微博网页版

Summary 1. In deciding how to play the game, a firm must not only identify what activities it needs to perform but also combine these activities into a reinforcing system that creates the requisite fit between what the environment needs and what the company does. 2. At the same

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 14:14来自微博网页版

Successful innovators excel at stirring things up. They are not afraid to destabilize a smoothly running machineand to do so periodicallybecause no one can know in advance exactly when the system will need this jolt. Witness, for example, what Jack Welch has done at General Elect

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 14:09来自微博网页版

To sum up: Successful companies are able to question the status quo even when they are financially successful (point A in Exhibit 4-4). One tactic they use to do this is to monitor not only their financial health but also their strategic health. Doing so gives them an early warni

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 14:05来自微博网页版

The example of Boddington suggests that it is possible to measure the strategic health of a company. The list of measures that can be used for this purpose is long (see Exhibit 4-6). Several of the most useful indicators of strategic health are discussed below. · Customer sati

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 14:03来自微博网页版

A company must go beyond the financial figures to examine its strategic health. Strategic health refers to the future health of an organization. To monitor its strategic health, a company needs to find a way to measure it. Such measures of strategic health are like early warning

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 13:45来自微博网页版

Second, the activities you decide to perform must fit together (recall the jigsaw). For example, manufacturing must be able to make the products that marketing is promoting. Similarly, you cannot aim to exploit synergies across your subsidiaries (by, for example, transferring key

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 13:42来自微博网页版

How to Put a System Together In designing the company's system of activities, managers must bear four principles in mind. First, the individual activities you choose to undertake must be the ones that are demanded by the market. For example, there is no sense in developing an ex

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 11:24来自微博网页版

The McDonald's example illustrates what a company should aim for in constructing its strategy: to arrange the individual activities it needs to be successful into a jigsaw puzzle. The first part of this task determining what activities a firm must carry out is easy. The difficult

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 11:16来自微博网页版

At the same time, however, it must be kept in mind that the "fitness" between what the company does and what the environment requires has often been dismissed as static. "What happens when the environment changes?" people ask. In such a case, the argument goes, companies that cre

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 11:16来自微博网页版

Designing an optimal value chain and developing functional policies are obviously important issues for every firm. However, they are not the real core of strategy. In fact, determining what activities to pursue is relatively easy and straight forward all one has to do is to ask:

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 10:50来自微博网页版

I believe we have a sustainable competitive advantage. This does not stem from any one thing we do. Rather, it is based on the system that we have builtthe numerous things we carry out on a daily basis which reinforce each other and form a mosaic which is recognizably different t

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 10:26来自微博网页版

The whole purpose of asking the question is to identify a specific definition (be it narrow or broad) that will allow you to maximize the impact of your unique capabilities relative to those of your competitors.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 10:21来自微博网页版

This example highlights a simple point: the choice of customer and the choice of products or services are strategic choices. It is the company's strategic responsibility to decide who will be its customer and what products it will offer that customer. Unless the company has unlim

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 10:07来自微博网页版

Decide Who Your Customers Are and What to Offer Them The customer is frequently wrong. We don't carry those sorts of customers. We write them and say: "Fly somebody else." Herb Kelleher, CEO, Southwest Airlines Being great at everything is not an actionable message." Floris

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 09:57来自微博网页版

Summary 1. What we need to do in a business (that is, our strategy) is conditioned by what we think that business is. An essential element of any strategy should be the clear and explicit definition of the business the company is in. Formulating this definition should be the sta

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 09:23来自微博网页版

Definition of the Business: Any Organization's Biggest Mental Model Companies have a host of mental models, or sacred cowsthe assumptions no one ever questions, the behaviors everyone takes for granted. But the most dominant mental model any company has is its perception of what

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 09:15来自微博网页版

My list of tactics is not meant to be exhaustive. The important thing to note is that superior strategies very rarely emerge unless mental models are questioned and sacred cows slaughtered as necessary.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 09:01来自微博网页版

Think about it: if the essence of strategic innovation is to discover new customers, or new products, or new ways of playing the game, how can this discovery take place if you never question who your customers really are, what your value proposition to those customers really is,

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:51来自微博网页版

Decide What Your Business Is 5bcdef87b22e69c4f37619ad96fe0de5.gif The railroads are in trouble today . . . because they assumed themselves to be in the railroad business rather than in the transportation business. The reason they defined their industry wrong was because they wer

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:49来自微博网页版

The third and final ingredient of a superior strategic position is to develop the necessary competencies and the appropriate organizational environment (or context) that will support the choices made. By organizational environment, I mean four basic things: the organization's cul

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:35来自微博网页版

The second ingredient of a superior strategic position resides in finding answers to the questions who, what, and how. Who should we target as customers? What products and services should we offer them? How should we do this in an efficient way? The questions of "who" and the "w

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:34来自微博网页版

The first ingredient of a superior strategic position is the explicit answer to the question, "What business are we in?" Although very few companies actually ask themselves this question, let alone answer it, my research suggests that this is the single, most important step in th

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:31来自微博网页版

To be successful, a company must create and exploit a unique strategic position in its industry. This essentially means that a company must do three things: 1. Define what business it believes it is in. 2. Decide who will be its targeted customers, what products or services it

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-02 08:25来自微博网页版

2. No position will remain unique forever. Aggressive competitors not only imitate attractive positions, they create new ones, and these can pose a much greater threat. Over time, these new positions can grow to challenge the attractiveness of the dominant positions of the day. (

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 14:27来自微博网页版

Believing that all possible positions have already been colonized by competitors, they shift their attention to protecting and improving their current positions. Little attention is paid to searching for or discovering new strategic positions in the industry. Yet this is exactly

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 14:23来自微博网页版

Companies Must Search for New Positions Continually New strategic positionsthat is, new combinations of who/ what/howare emerging all the time. Changing industry conditions, changing customer needs or preferences, moves and countermoves by competitors, and a company's own evolvi

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 14:09来自微博网页版

There is no question that success stems from the exploitation of a unique strategic position. Unfortunately, no position can remain unique or attractive forever. The firm lucky enough to be in one will be imitated by aggressive competitors, and, perhaps more important, supplanted

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 14:07来自微博网页版

Unfortunately, No Position Remains Unique Forever Nespresso and Edward Jones built their success on finding and exploiting unique strategic positions in their industries. They did not try to imitate the strategic positions of their competitors. Nor did they try to do their compe

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:58来自微博网页版

Strategic Choices Made at Nespresso The Who "Who should I target as customers?" · Target individuals and households, not restaurants or offices. The What "What products or services should I offer?" · Sell coffee, not coffee machines. · Educate retailers so that they can

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:57来自微博网页版

The How "How can I best deliver these services to these customers?" · Never manufacture my own products act only as distributor. · Buy only from a few reputable suppliers (such as Capital Research and Morgan · Operate as one-person offices located in the community. ·

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:53来自微博网页版

The What "What products or services should I offer?" · Offer transparent, long-term products such as la bonds. Never sell risky initial large-cap equities and and highly rated public offerings or commodity futures.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:49来自微博网页版

The Who "Who should I target as customers?" · Target individual investors rather than institutional investors. · Target individuals who live in areas where "there is a sense of community."

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:27来自微博网页版

Two Companies That Chose Wisely and Chose Well The value of making smart choices along the who/what/how continuum is probably best shown by example. Here are the brief strategic histories of two companies that chose well.

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:24来自微博网页版

In every industry, there are several viable positions that a company can occupy. The essence of strategy therefore is to choose the one position that your company will claim as its own. A strategic position is simply the sum of a company's answers to these three questions: Who sh

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 13:21来自微博网页版

The strategist's method is very simply to challenge the prevailing assumptions with a single question: why? and to put the same question relentlessly to those responsible for the current way of doing things until they are sick of it. Kenichi Ohmae, The Mind of the Strategist: Th

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 11:27来自微博网页版

· Even if a company discovers a new strategic position, can it manage two positions (the old and the new) at the same time? Is this even possible, or should the company focus on one of the two?

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 11:27来自微博网页版

Structure of the Book The basic premise of this book is that superior strategy is all about finding and exploiting a unique strategic position in the company's business while at the same time searching for new strategic positions on a continuing basis. From a managerial perspect

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 11:22来自微博网页版

Designing a successful strategy is also a never-ending quest. Just because companies like Dell or Wal-Mart have superior strategies and are successful today is no guarantee that they will be successful tomorrow. To be successful tomorrow, they will need to develop a strategy that

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 11:20来自微博网页版

Still, designing a successful strategy is not a science it is an art. It is the art of asking intelligent questions, of exploring possible answers, of experimenting with possible solutions, and of starting the thinking process all over again by questioning the answers arrived at

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 10:57来自微博网页版

Summary Business-model innovation is the discovery of a different business model in an existing industry. The innovation enlarges the market by attracting nonconsumers to the product or service or by encouraging existing consumers to consume more. New business models invade the m

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 10:56来自微博网页版

Potential Conflicts and Trade-offs Between the Established Business Model and the New One Risk of cannibalizing the existing customer base Risk of destroying or undermining the value of the existing distribution network Risk of compromising the quality of service offered to custo

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 10:44来自微博网页版

For the purposes of this book, I will use a simpler definition based on the pioneering work of Derek Abell (1980), who held that a business model is the sum of the answers that a company gives to these three interrelated questions: Who should I target as customers? What products

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Bot_Trader

2026-07-01 09:55来自微博网页版

Conglomerates, or highly diversified companies, appeared in only 5 percent of the sustained value creators, as compared to 21 percent in non-sustained value creators. The most notable example of a successful highly diverse company is General Electric, a collection of dominant cor

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 15:00来自微博网页版

PepsiCo provides an example of this positive spin-off effect. Over the past two decades, Coke has outperformed Pepsi substantially, even though Pepsi has performed well and provided total return to shareholders of 23 percent. Moreover, Pepsi’s fast-food restaurant business was l

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 14:46来自微博网页版

Evidence from Spin-offs The experiences of companies that have split themselves up or spun off major divisions or groups as separate public companies offer still more evidence of the power of focus. David Sadder, Andrew Campbell, and Richard Kochs examination of the aftermath of

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 13:10来自微博网页版

Nowhere is the value of focus as clear as in a single-product company fighting for its life against less-focused competitors embedded in large conglomerates with many cross-cutting agendas and tradeoffs. Accuride saw its market share relative to competitors go through the roof, i

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 11:18来自微博网页版

To achieve their goals, the Accuride executives added low-cost capacity and preemptively offered lower prices and superior terms that competitors could not quickly match. Romney continues, “Goodyear acted slowly and decided not to match. Masco was stunned and stopped investing i

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 10:59来自微博网页版

It is almost as if most growth strategies harbor a dark, destructive force that causes companies to reduce their focus on their core business and thereby to depart from the basis of their real differentiation. Consider the following questions: Why did Sears enter financial servic

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 10:48来自微博网页版

Evidence from Sustained Value Creators An examination of the companies that have sustained both value creation and at least 5.5 percent annual growth over ten years shows that nearly 80 percent of these sustained value creators had one core business with clear market leadership (

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Bot_Trader

2026-06-30 10:43来自微博网页版

The Power of Focusing on the Core Companies that have very few, highly focused, core businesses account for most of the sustained growth companies. The historical record shows that most diversified companies should narrow and focus their activities to create fewer growth platform

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